BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
85-70 | Road
3
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
75-80 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Payton Tolle
#70 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Tolle | None-None | 6.28 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 3.80 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.28
ERA
Ldr 3.80
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
56%
RAYS
44%
RED SOX
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.5%
BOS By 3-4 runs
18.6%
TB By 1-2 runs
13.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
7.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
5.72
BOSTON
Tampa Bay
3.63
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim
Rays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
BOS @ TB
4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026
TB @ BOS
1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026
TB @ BOS
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.409
OPS
▲
.728
2
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+33.6% more
Boston: 10.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 6.7
Hits (L5)
+16.4% more
Boston: 9.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 8.2
Walks (L5)
+9.4% more
Boston: 3.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.4
Home Runs (Season)
+8350.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
5.7
3
TB Score
3.6
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.8 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.8
9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 10.1
14.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 13.9
13.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.7
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BOS
TB
BOS
ML
58%
95-68
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
47%
76-87
ATS
60%
97-66
58%
93-67
55%
90-73
48%
79-84
TTL
47%
73-81-9
46%
72-83-5
51%
78-75-10
47%
74-83-6
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