Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Gardner-Webb @ Ohio GWEB @ OHIO

GARDNER-WEBB

GARDNER-WEBBGWEB

2-1  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 3:30 PM ET
Peden Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

1-2  |  Home

52
Key Game
Ethan Chandler
KEY GAME

Ethan Chandler

#30 | Defensive Back
@
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
Player
Ethan Chandler None-None
Magnus Haines None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GARDNER-WEBB
100%
📊
OHIO
0%
GARDNER-WEBB --
OHIO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
OHIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Ohio)
Gardner-WebbGWEB (-3.5) 0 OhioOHIO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Gardner-Webb Cover

0.1%

Ohio Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OHIO -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)

GWEB By 1-6 points

0.1%

GWEB By 7-13 points

0.0%

OHIO By 1-6 points

0.4%

OHIO By 7-13 points

1.5%

AI Model Projected Score
7
GARDNER-WEBB
49
OHIO
Simulated Score
13
GARDNER-WEBB
38
OHIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ohio Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ohio Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ohio (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Sim Ohio (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 GWEB @ OHIO 35 - 52
Sep 24, 2016 GWEB @ OHIO 21 - 37
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +76.0% more
Ohio: 161.9 vs Gardner-Webb: 92.0
Total Yards (L5) +15.6% more
Ohio: 355.5 vs Gardner-Webb: 307.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Ohio: 0.4 vs Gardner-Webb: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +10.9% more
Ohio: 19.5 vs Gardner-Webb: 17.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GWEB Score 7.0 35
OHIO Score 49.0 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 17.6 33.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 161.9 / 92.0 318.0 / 191.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.56 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 355.5 / 307.6 608.0 / 480.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 2.4 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GWEB
--
OHIO Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GWEB
--
OHIO Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GWEB
--
OHIO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OHIO
GWEB
OHIO
GWEB
ML
75% 3-1
100% 3-0
100% 5-0
100% 3-0
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
20% 1-4
67% 2-1
TTL
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
100% 5-0
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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