WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
62-92 | Road
5
NEW YORK
METSNYM
80-74 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Clayton Beeter
#39 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nolan McLean
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Beeter | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Nolan McLean | None-None | 1.27 | -- | 5.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.50
ERA
Ldr 1.27
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
38%
METS
62%
NATIONALS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
10.0%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
16.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.43
WASHINGTON
New York
5.65
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
NYM @ WSH
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
NYM @ WSH
7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026
NYM @ WSH
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
WSH @ NYM
3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
WSH @ NYM
4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.744
▲
OPS
.705
210
▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+146.0% more
New York: 2.0
vs
Washington: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+32.0% more
New York: 17.0
vs
Washington: 12.9
Hits (L5)
+20.6% more
New York: 9.7
vs
Washington: 8.0
Errors (L5)
+45.9% more
Washington: 1.2
vs
New York: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.4
5
NYM Score
5.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 1.2
2.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.7 / 8.0
11.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 7.6
12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
17.0 / 12.9
14.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.2 / 4.0
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
WSH
NYM
WSH
ML
50%
79-80
57%
92-69
48%
76-83
54%
87-74
ATS
58%
93-66
58%
93-68
49%
78-81
57%
91-70
TTL
55%
80-66-13
50%
77-78-6
51%
74-72-13
42%
65-90-6
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