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BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

84-70  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:05 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

75-79  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Nick Fortes
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Fortes

#40 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aroldis Chapman None-None 1.21 -- 1.0 1
Nick Fortes None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
1.21 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
56%
📊
RAYS
44%
RED SOX --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

67.2%

Rays Cover

32.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

18.0%

TB By 1-2 runs

14.2%

TB By 3-4 runs

8.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5.56
BOSTON
3.78
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
A
Sim Rays (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026 BOS @ TB 1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026 BOS @ TB 4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026 TB @ BOS 1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026 TB @ BOS 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Tampa Bay TB
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.409
OPS
▲ .728
2
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +35.2% more
Boston: 11.6 vs Tampa Bay: 7.5
Walks (L5) +14.5% more
Boston: 3.6 vs Tampa Bay: 3.1
Hits (L5) +9.4% more
Boston: 9.7 vs Tampa Bay: 8.8
Home Runs (Season) +8350.0% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 5.6 6
TB Score 3.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.9 3.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 9.7 7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.5 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 11.6 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 15.9 9.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.6 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BOS
TB
BOS
ML
58% 95-68
50% 80-80
58% 95-68
47% 76-87
ATS
60% 97-66
58% 93-67
55% 90-73
48% 79-84
TTL
47% 73-81-9
46% 72-83-5
51% 78-75-10
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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