ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
70-83 | Road
10
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
85-68 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Elder
#55 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zach McKinstry
#39 | Right Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder | None-None | 5.36 | -- | 7.0 | 6 |
| Zach McKinstry | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.36
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
40%
TIGERS
60%
BRAVES
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
58%
Under 0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
18.5%
DET By 1-2 runs
13.4%
DET By 3-4 runs
7.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
5.74
ATLANTA
Detroit
3.68
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
B
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DET @ ATL
5 - 2
Apr 29, 2026
DET @ ATL
3 - 4
Apr 28, 2026
DET @ ATL
2 - 5
Sep 21, 2025
ATL @ DET
6 - 2
Sep 20, 2025
ATL @ DET
6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Detroit
DET
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.757
▲
OPS
.720
1
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+58.0% more
Atlanta: 1.6
vs
Detroit: 0.7
Hits (L5)
+53.7% more
Atlanta: 12.9
vs
Detroit: 6.0
Total Bases (L5)
+51.7% more
Atlanta: 19.6
vs
Detroit: 9.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.8% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Detroit: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
5.7
10
DET Score
3.7
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.0 / 12.9
5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.6
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 11.2
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
9.5 / 19.6
10.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.4
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ATL
DET
ATL
ML
54%
86-73
46%
77-90
54%
87-73
54%
90-78
ATS
64%
101-58
57%
96-71
57%
91-69
52%
87-81
TTL
46%
69-81-9
53%
83-73-11
46%
69-81-10
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
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