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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

62-91  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Sep 19 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

79-74  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Andrew Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Alvarez

#54 | Starting Pitcher
@
Brett Baty
STARTING PITCHER

Brett Baty

#7 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andrew Alvarez None-None 2.84 -- 3.1 4
Brett Baty None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.84 ERA --
-- WHIP --
3.1 IP (Innings Pitched) --
4 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
39%
📊
METS
61%
NATIONALS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 58%
Under 0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (New York)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

37.6%

Mets Cover

62.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

WSH By 1-2 runs

15.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

9.9%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.09
WASHINGTON
5.35
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 NYM @ WSH 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 NYM @ WSH 7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026 NYM @ WSH 6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026 WSH @ NYM 3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 WSH @ NYM 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.744 ▲
OPS
.705
210 ▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +219.0% more
New York: 2.5 vs Washington: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +45.9% more
New York: 16.6 vs Washington: 11.4
Errors (L5) +16.0% more
New York: 0.5 vs Washington: 0.3
Walks (L5) +35.5% more
Washington: 3.4 vs New York: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.1 6
NYM Score 5.4 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 1.0 / 3.0
Hits 8.1 / 8.1 13.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.5 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 7.0 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 16.6 / 11.4 18.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.4 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
WSH
NYM
WSH
ML
50% 79-80
57% 92-69
48% 76-83
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-66
58% 93-68
49% 78-81
57% 91-70
TTL
55% 80-66-13
50% 77-78-6
51% 74-72-13
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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