BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
83-70 | Road
11
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
75-78 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Justin Slaten
#63 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Cleavinger
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Slaten | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | None-None | 2.31 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.50
ERA
Ldr 2.31
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
55%
RAYS
45%
RED SOX
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
17.2%
TB By 1-2 runs
15.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
5.24
BOSTON
Tampa Bay
3.84
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 5
Sep 19, 2026
BOS @ TB
1 - 2
Sep 18, 2026
BOS @ TB
4 - 2
Jul 19, 2026
TB @ BOS
1 - 6
Jul 18, 2026
TB @ BOS
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.409
OPS
▲
.728
2
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+54.0% more
Boston: 0.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.3
Home Runs (L5)
+34.7% more
Boston: 1.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+33.2% more
Boston: 10.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.3
Walks (L5)
+27.2% more
Boston: 2.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
5.2
11
TB Score
3.8
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.8
3.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.1 / 8.5
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.2
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 10.9
8.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 13.4
18.0 / 21.0
Walks
2.1 / 2.9
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BOS
TB
BOS
ML
58%
95-68
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
47%
76-87
ATS
60%
97-66
58%
93-67
55%
90-73
48%
79-84
TTL
47%
73-81-9
46%
72-83-5
51%
78-75-10
47%
74-83-6
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