Home / NFL Projections NFL / Lions @ Ravens DET @ BAL

DETROIT

LIONSDET

1-1  |  Road

38
FINAL
Mon, Sep 22 • 8:15 PM ET
M&T Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

1-1  |  Home

30
Key Game
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
@
Tyler Loop
KEY GAME

Tyler Loop

#33 | Place kicker
Player
Jack Fox None-None
Tyler Loop None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
RAVENS
0%
LIONS --
RAVENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.2
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.2 points (Baltimore)
LionsDET (-3.5) 0 RavensBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

2.6%

Ravens Cover

97.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BAL -27.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

DET By 1-6 points

1.6%

DET By 7-13 points

0.6%

BAL By 1-6 points

4.2%

BAL By 7-13 points

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
14.36
DETROIT
41.53
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
24
DETROIT
27
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ravens Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Ravens Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ravens (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -27.2
D
Sim Ravens (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 22, 2025 DET @ BAL 38 - 30
Oct 22, 2023 DET @ BAL 6 - 38
Sep 26, 2021 BAL @ DET 19 - 17
Dec 3, 2017 DET @ BAL 20 - 44
Dec 16, 2013 BAL @ DET 18 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.5% more
Baltimore: 165.1 vs Detroit: 142.9
Turnovers (L5) +40.3% more
Detroit: 1.2 vs Baltimore: 0.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +29.4% more
Detroit: 287.0 vs Baltimore: 202.6
First Downs (L5) +17.5% more
Detroit: 23.8 vs Baltimore: 19.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 14.4 38
BAL Score 41.5 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 23.8 21.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 202.6 / 287.0 233.0 / 202.0
Rushing Yards 165.1 / 142.9 85.0 / 224.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 367.7 / 429.9 318.0 / 426.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.5 / 6.8 5.9 / 6.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
BAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
BAL Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
DET
BAL
DET
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
100% 3-0-1
67% 2-1-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CeeDee Lamb Nears Historic Cowboys Milestone in Thursday Night C…
newsweek 8 hours, 51 minutes ago
Ravens' Gamble on Cam Jurgens: A Trade That Demands Two Grades
si 8 hours, 53 minutes ago
Week 5 Fantasy Football: Tight End Start/Sit — Ferguson, Gesicki…
usatoday 15 hours, 12 minutes ago
Buccaneers Safety Antoine Winfield Sidelined, Adding to Tampa Ba…
yardbarker 21 hours, 17 minutes ago
Cardinals Week 5 Injury Report: Jeremiyah Love Limited; Paris Jo…
yahoo 21 hours, 23 minutes ago