Home / NFL Projections NFL / Colts @ Titans IND @ TEN

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

2-0  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sun, Sep 21 • 1:00 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

0-2  |  Home

20
Key Game
Arden Key
KEY GAME

Arden Key

#98 | Defensive End
@
Dorian Mausi
KEY GAME

Dorian Mausi

#54 | Linebacker
Player
Arden Key None-None
Dorian Mausi None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
0%
📊
TITANS
100%
COLTS --
TITANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Indianapolis)
ColtsIND (-3.5) 0 TitansTEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

58.2%

Titans Cover

41.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IND -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

IND By 1-6 points

17.0%

IND By 7-13 points

17.4%

TEN By 1-6 points

15.3%

TEN By 7-13 points

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
23.58
INDIANAPOLIS
20.67
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
20
INDIANAPOLIS
24
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Colts Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Titans Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Colts (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.9
D
Sim Titans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 26, 2025 TEN @ IND 14 - 38
Sep 21, 2025 IND @ TEN 41 - 20
Dec 22, 2024 TEN @ IND 30 - 38
Oct 13, 2024 IND @ TEN 20 - 17
Dec 3, 2023 IND @ TEN 31 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.2% more
Indianapolis: 167.9 vs Tennessee: 97.1
Total Yards (L5) +40.1% more
Indianapolis: 427.0 vs Tennessee: 255.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +38.8% more
Indianapolis: 259.0 vs Tennessee: 158.6
First Downs (L5) +35.5% more
Indianapolis: 24.2 vs Tennessee: 15.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 23.6 41
TEN Score 20.7 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.6 / 24.2 21.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 158.6 / 259.0 196.0 / 228.0
Rushing Yards 97.1 / 167.9 86.0 / 137.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 255.7 / 427.0 282.0 / 365.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.2 / 6.3 4.3 / 6.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
90%TICKETS10%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
TEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEN
IND
TEN
IND
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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