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CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

2-0  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Sep 21 • 1:00 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

1-1  |  Home

48
Key Game
Jonathan Allen
KEY GAME

Jonathan Allen

#93 | Defensive Tackle
@
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Jonathan Allen None-None
Will Reichard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
0%
📊
VIKINGS
100%
BENGALS --
VIKINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Cincinnati)
BengalsCIN (-3.5) 0 VikingsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

62.5%

Vikings Cover

37.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CIN -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-6 points

16.9%

CIN By 7-13 points

18.3%

MIN By 1-6 points

14.5%

MIN By 7-13 points

11.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22.17
CINCINNATI
17.7
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
24
CINCINNATI
27
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bengals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bengals (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.5
D
Sim Vikings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 21, 2025 CIN @ MIN 10 - 48
Dec 16, 2023 MIN @ CIN 24 - 27
Sep 12, 2021 MIN @ CIN 24 - 27
Dec 17, 2017 CIN @ MIN 7 - 34
Dec 22, 2013 MIN @ CIN 14 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +34.3% more
Cincinnati: 249.9 vs Minnesota: 164.1
First Downs (L5) +28.4% more
Cincinnati: 21.4 vs Minnesota: 15.3
Total Yards (L5) +17.4% more
Cincinnati: 317.1 vs Minnesota: 261.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.5 vs Minnesota: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 22.2 10
MIN Score 17.7 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.3 / 21.4 22.0 / 12.0
Net Passing Yards 164.1 / 249.9 183.0 / 118.0
Rushing Yards 97.8 / 67.2 169.0 / 53.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 261.9 / 317.1 352.0 / 171.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.8 0.0 / 5.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 4.9 6.1 / 3.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
CIN
MIN
CIN
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
TTL
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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