Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Giants KC @ NYG

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

0-2  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sun, Sep 21 • 8:20 PM ET
MetLife Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

GIANTSNYG

0-2  |  Home

9
Key Game
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
@
Gunner Olszewski
KEY GAME

Gunner Olszewski

#80 | Wide Receiver
Player
Matt Araiza None-None
Gunner Olszewski None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
100%
📊
GIANTS
0%
CHIEFS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.1 points (New York)
ChiefsKC (-3.5) 0 GiantsNYG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

9.8%

Giants Cover

90.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NYG -18.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYG)

KC By 1-6 points

5.2%

KC By 7-13 points

2.7%

NYG By 1-6 points

9.9%

NYG By 7-13 points

16.7%

AI Model Projected Score
19.99
KANSAS CITY
38.11
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
31
KANSAS CITY
20
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chiefs Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.1
D
Sim Chiefs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 58.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 21, 2025 KC @ NYG 22 - 9
Nov 1, 2021 NYG @ KC 17 - 20
Nov 19, 2017 KC @ NYG 9 - 12
Sep 29, 2013 NYG @ KC 7 - 31
Oct 4, 2009 NYG @ KC 27 - 16
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +27.6% more
New York: 262.5 vs Kansas City: 205.7
Total Yards (L5) +14.5% more
New York: 345.4 vs Kansas City: 301.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.6% more
Kansas City: 95.9 vs New York: 82.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 20.0 22
NYG Score 38.1 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.4 / 17.2 19.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 262.5 / 205.7 151.0 / 201.0
Rushing Yards 82.9 / 95.9 130.0 / 105.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.1 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 345.4 / 301.6 281.0 / 306.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 5.4 4.6 / 4.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
NYG
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
NYG Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
NYG
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYG
KC
NYG
KC
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
ATS
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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