BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
71-80 | Road
3
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
57-95 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Taylor
#31 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 3.30 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Grant Taylor | None-None | 5.51 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.30 Ldr
ERA
5.51
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
60%
WHITE SOX
40%
ORIOLES
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
BAL By 1-2 runs
17.8%
BAL By 3-4 runs
12.6%
CHW By 1-2 runs
18.9%
CHW By 3-4 runs
14.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
3.72
BALTIMORE
Chicago
4.05
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
White Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim
White Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
CHW @ BAL
1 - 6
Jun 30, 2026
CHW @ BAL
9 - 3
Jun 29, 2026
CHW @ BAL
8 - 2
Apr 8, 2026
BAL @ CHW
5 - 3
Apr 7, 2026
BAL @ CHW
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Chicago
CHW
161
▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.711
OPS
▲
.826
199
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+34.5% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Baltimore: 4.5
OPS (Season)
+11.5%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Baltimore: 71.1%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+10.1%
Chicago: 41.5%
vs
Baltimore: 31.4%
Batting Avg (Season)
+9.0%
Chicago: 32.4%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
3.7
3
CHW Score
4.1
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 8.7
5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 10.1
12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
9.7 / 15.4
8.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.9
5.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
BAL
CHW
BAL
ML
49%
81-86
53%
83-73
56%
94-73
57%
90-69
ATS
59%
99-68
61%
95-60-1
56%
93-74
57%
90-68-1
TTL
58%
96-69-2
54%
81-70-5
51%
84-81-2
51%
78-75-6
Contextual Game News
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