ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
71-80 | Road
4
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
82-69 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Elvis Alvarado
#37 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Alvarado | None-None | 3.55 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.23 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.55
ERA
Ldr 1.23
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
43%
RED SOX
57%
ATHLETICS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
39%
Under 0
61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.5%
ATH By 3-4 runs
10.8%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
4.47
ATHLETICS
Boston
5.41
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Boston
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
ATH @ BOS
4 - 3
Aug 8, 2026
ATH @ BOS
7 - 3
Aug 7, 2026
ATH @ BOS
1 - 13
Jul 30, 2026
BOS @ ATH
5 - 4
Jul 29, 2026
BOS @ ATH
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.719
▲
OPS
.409
194
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+98.5% more
Boston: 10.9
vs
Athletics: 5.5
Home Runs (Season)
+99.0% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+76.8% more
Athletics: 4.3
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+58.7% more
Athletics: 1.9
vs
Boston: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
4.5
4
BOS Score
5.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.9 / 9.5
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.9 / 5.5
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.0 / 16.6
13.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.0 / 4.0
6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
ATH
BOS
ATH
ML
50%
80-80
59%
95-67
47%
76-87
54%
87-74
ATS
58%
93-67
52%
84-78
48%
79-84
50%
81-80
TTL
46%
72-83-5
54%
84-73-5
47%
74-83-6
42%
66-90-5
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