CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
78-71 | Road
7
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
85-65 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Holton
#87 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 3.15 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Tyler Holton | None-None | 3.91 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.15 Ldr
ERA
3.91
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
46%
TIGERS
54%
GUARDIANS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
44%
Under 0
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
CLE By 1-2 runs
14.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
8.8%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4.05
CLEVELAND
Detroit
5.68
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
DET @ CLE
2 - 3
Sep 5, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
DET @ CLE
6 - 7
Aug 13, 2026
CLE @ DET
0 - 3
Aug 12, 2026
CLE @ DET
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Detroit
DET
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.696
OPS
▲
.720
162
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+140.3% more
Detroit: 3.0
vs
Cleveland: 1.2
Home Runs (Season)
+11.7% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Hits (L5)
+8.6% more
Detroit: 7.0
vs
Cleveland: 6.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.4% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.1
7
DET Score
5.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.0 / 6.4
9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.3
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 9.5
15.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 11.8
19.0 / 23.0
Walks
3.0 / 1.2
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
CLE
DET
CLE
ML
54%
86-73
54%
87-74
54%
87-73
49%
80-82
ATS
64%
101-58
58%
93-68
57%
91-69
59%
95-67
TTL
46%
69-81-9
55%
88-71-2
46%
69-81-10
43%
69-90-2
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