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TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

88-62  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Sep 16 • 7:35 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

73-77  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Brendon Little
STARTING PITCHER

Brendon Little

#54 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bryan Baker
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Baker

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brendon Little None-None 3.13 -- 0.1 --
Bryan Baker None-None 3.64 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.13 Ldr ERA 3.64
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
60%
📊
RAYS
40%
BLUE JAYS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 33%
Under 0 67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Tampa Bay)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

19.0%

Rays Cover

81.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -3.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TOR By 1-2 runs

9.2%

TOR By 3-4 runs

4.4%

TB By 1-2 runs

17.4%

TB By 3-4 runs

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.33
TORONTO
6.84
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rays (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.5
D
Sim Rays (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 TOR @ TB 5 - 1
Aug 19, 2026 TOR @ TB 6 - 7
Aug 18, 2026 TOR @ TB 10 - 5
Jul 23, 2026 TB @ TOR 1 - 3
Jul 22, 2026 TB @ TOR 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.692
OPS
▲ .728
152
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +58.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.1 vs Toronto: 0.5
Errors (L5) +14.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.2 vs Toronto: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +13.5% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Toronto: 4.0
Home Runs (Season) +11.2% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.3 6
TB Score 6.8 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.0 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.4 / 9.5 10.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.5 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 11.6 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 14.0 14.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.3 3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
TOR
TB
TOR
ML
58% 95-68
46% 74-87
58% 95-68
50% 80-80
ATS
60% 97-66
56% 90-71
55% 90-73
49% 79-81
TTL
47% 73-81-9
51% 80-76-5
51% 78-75-10
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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