BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
70-80 | Road
8
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
57-94 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Edgar Quero
#26 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 3.41 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Edgar Quero | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.41
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
59%
WHITE SOX
41%
ORIOLES
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.0%
BAL By 3-4 runs
14.7%
CHW By 1-2 runs
17.7%
CHW By 3-4 runs
12.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
3.89
BALTIMORE
Chicago
3.48
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim
White Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
CHW @ BAL
1 - 6
Jun 30, 2026
CHW @ BAL
9 - 3
Jun 29, 2026
CHW @ BAL
8 - 2
Apr 8, 2026
BAL @ CHW
5 - 3
Apr 7, 2026
BAL @ CHW
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Chicago
CHW
161
▲
Games Played
1
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.711
OPS
▲
.826
199
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.5% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+64.4% more
Baltimore: 1.0
vs
Chicago: 0.4
Errors (L5)
+48.0% more
Baltimore: 0.6
vs
Chicago: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+30.9% more
Baltimore: 10.1
vs
Chicago: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
3.9
8
CHW Score
3.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.3 / 6.6
8.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.0
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 10.1
11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
7.6 / 10.5
14.0 / 25.0
Walks
3.9 / 3.3
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
BAL
CHW
BAL
ML
49%
81-86
53%
83-73
56%
94-73
57%
90-69
ATS
59%
99-68
61%
95-60-1
56%
93-74
57%
90-68-1
TTL
58%
96-69-2
54%
81-70-5
51%
84-81-2
51%
78-75-6
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