Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Texas @ Army UNT @ ARMY

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

3-0  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 12:00 PM ET
Michie Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARMY

ARMYARMY

1-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Terrell Washington
KEY GAME

Terrell Washington

#93 | Defensive Lineman
@
Dawson Jones
KEY GAME

Dawson Jones

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Terrell Washington None-None
Dawson Jones None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH TEXAS
100%
📊
ARMY
0%
NORTH TEXAS --
ARMY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
ARMY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Army)
North TexasUNT (-3.5) 0 ArmyARMY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Texas Cover

19.6%

Army Cover

80.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARMY -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARMY)

UNT By 1-6 points

9.3%

UNT By 7-13 points

5.9%

ARMY By 1-6 points

14.2%

ARMY By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
19
NORTH TEXAS
31
ARMY
Simulated Score
20
NORTH TEXAS
27
ARMY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Army Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Army Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Army (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
C
Sim Army (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 UNT @ ARMY 45 - 38
Nov 9, 2024 ARMY @ UNT 14 - 3
Nov 18, 2017 ARMY @ UNT 49 - 52
Dec 27, 2016 ARMY @ UNT 38 - 31
Oct 22, 2016 UNT @ ARMY 35 - 18
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +56.5% more
Army: 254.8 vs North Texas: 162.9
Turnovers (L5) +45.0% more
Army: 1.2 vs North Texas: 0.8
Time of Possession (L5) +18.0% more
Army: 0.6 vs North Texas: 0.5
Total Yards (L5) +20.1% more
North Texas: 433.0 vs Army: 345.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 19.0 45
ARMY Score 31.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.1 / 24.4 26.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 254.8 / 162.9 387.0 / 229.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 345.9 / 433.0 488.0 / 478.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.8 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
ARMY
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
ARMY
1-2-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 13.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.5
ARMY
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARMY
UNT
ARMY
UNT
ML
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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