Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon St @ Oregon ORST @ ORE

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

0-3  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 3:00 PM ET
Autzen Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON

OREGONORE

3-0  |  Home

41
Key Game
Caleb Ojeda
KEY GAME

Caleb Ojeda

#28 | Place kicker
@
Ify Obidegwu
KEY GAME

Ify Obidegwu

#7 | Defensive Back
Player
Caleb Ojeda None-None
Ify Obidegwu None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON ST
100%
📊
OREGON
0%
OREGON ST --
OREGON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
73.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Oregon)
Oregon StORST (-3.5) 0 OregonORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon St Cover

3.7%

Oregon Cover

96.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORE -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

ORST By 1-6 points

2.2%

ORST By 7-13 points

0.9%

ORE By 1-6 points

5.3%

ORE By 7-13 points

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
24
OREGON STATE
49
OREGON
Simulated Score
20
OREGON STATE
34
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oregon Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oregon Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oregon (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
C
Sim Oregon (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 73.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 ORST @ ORE 7 - 41
Sep 14, 2024 ORE @ ORST 49 - 14
Nov 24, 2023 ORST @ ORE 7 - 31
Nov 26, 2022 ORE @ ORST 34 - 38
Nov 27, 2021 ORST @ ORE 29 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +139.6% more
Oregon: 199.7 vs Oregon State: 83.4
Total Yards (L5) +23.5% more
Oregon: 453.9 vs Oregon State: 367.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Oregon: 0.6 vs Oregon State: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +10.3% more
Oregon: 22.8 vs Oregon State: 20.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORST Score 24.0 7
ORE Score 49.0 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 20.7 29.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 199.7 / 83.4 280.0 / 67.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 453.9 / 367.6 585.0 / 147.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.8 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
ORE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
ORE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 24.3 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.1
ORE
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
ORST
ORE
ORST
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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