Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / James Madison @ Liberty JMU @ LIB

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

1-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 3:30 PM ET
Williams Stadium (VA)
View Odds Details →

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

1-2  |  Home

13
Key Game
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
@
Nathan Pirolli
KEY GAME

Nathan Pirolli

#94 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Patrick Rea None-None
Nathan Pirolli None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAMES MADISON
0%
📊
LIBERTY
100%
JAMES MADISON --
LIBERTY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (James Madison)
James MadisonJMU (-3.5) 0 LibertyLIB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

James Madison Cover

95.0%

Liberty Cover

5.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JMU -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

JMU By 1-6 points

6.5%

JMU By 7-13 points

12.9%

LIB By 1-6 points

2.9%

LIB By 7-13 points

1.3%

AI Model Projected Score
42
JAMES MADISON
19
LIBERTY
Simulated Score
30
JAMES MADISON
34
LIBERTY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI James Madison Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Liberty Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI James Madison (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
C
Sim Liberty (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 64.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 LIB @ JMU 13 - 20
Sep 20, 2025 JMU @ LIB 31 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
James Madison: 0.6 vs Liberty: 0.5
Turnovers (L5) +73.2% more
Liberty: 2.4 vs James Madison: 1.4
Total Yards (L5) +8.3% more
Liberty: 396.0 vs James Madison: 365.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 42.0 31
LIB Score 19.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 20.6 16.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 194.8 / 204.4 158.0 / 227.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.21 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 396.0 / 365.7 233.0 / 440.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
LIB
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
LIB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
LIB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIB
JMU
LIB
JMU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Alabama's Cowbell Troll Headlines Top College Football Week 5 Ja…
espn 4 days, 23 hours ago
Delaware Opens CUSA Play Without Starting QB Nick Minicucci Agai…
yahoo 5 days, 23 hours ago
Liberty's Second-Half Surge Overwhelms Coastal Carolina in 34-17…
ctinsider 1 week, 6 days ago
Liberty Dominates Second Half to Spoil Chadwell's Return, Beat C…
yahoo 1 week, 6 days ago
Duke Blue Devils' Road Win Over Illinois: Position-by-Position G…
si 3 weeks, 3 days ago