Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ball State @ UConn BALL @ CONN

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

1-2  |  Road

25
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 3:30 PM ET
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

UCONN

UCONNCONN

1-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Carson Holmer
KEY GAME

Carson Holmer

#98 | Place kicker
@
Shamar Porter
KEY GAME

Shamar Porter

#5 | Wide Receiver
Player
Carson Holmer None-None
Shamar Porter None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BALL STATE
100%
📊
UCONN
0%
BALL STATE --
UCONN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
65.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (UConn)
Ball StateBALL (-3.5) 0 UConnCONN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ball State Cover

21.6%

UConn Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CONN -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)

BALL By 1-6 points

10.0%

BALL By 7-13 points

6.6%

CONN By 1-6 points

14.7%

CONN By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
27
BALL STATE
38
UCONN
Simulated Score
21
BALL STATE
24
UCONN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UConn Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UConn Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UConn (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Sim UConn (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 BALL @ CONN 25 - 31
Oct 15, 2022 CONN @ BALL 21 - 25
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +63.1% more
UConn: 472.5 vs Ball State: 289.6
First Downs (L5) +48.3% more
UConn: 23.8 vs Ball State: 16.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.0% more
UConn: 186.8 vs Ball State: 143.8
Turnovers (L5) +83.7% more
Ball State: 1.3 vs UConn: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 27.0 25
CONN Score 38.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.8 / 16.1 17.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 186.8 / 143.8 219.0 / 176.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 472.5 / 289.6 400.0 / 404.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
4%MONEY96%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
CONN Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
CONN Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.5
CONN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
BALL
CONN
BALL
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
20% 1-4
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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