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NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

3-0  |  Road

33
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 4:00 PM ET
Wallace Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

1-2  |  Home

45
Key Game
Ronnie Royal III
KEY GAME

Ronnie Royal III

#2 | Safety
@
Kade Reynoldson
KEY GAME

Kade Reynoldson

#41 | Punter
Player
Ronnie Royal III None-None
Kade Reynoldson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NC STATE
0%
📊
DUKE
100%
NC STATE --
DUKE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
82.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (NC State)
NC StateNCSU (-3.5) 0 DukeDUKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

NC State Cover

55.7%

Duke Cover

44.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NCSU -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

NCSU By 1-6 points

16.9%

NCSU By 7-13 points

16.8%

DUKE By 1-6 points

15.7%

DUKE By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
42
NC STATE
40
DUKE
Simulated Score
20
NC STATE
27
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI NC State Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Duke Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI NC State (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
C
Sim Duke (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 82.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 NCSU @ DUKE 33 - 45
Nov 9, 2024 DUKE @ NCSU 29 - 19
Oct 14, 2023 NCSU @ DUKE 3 - 24
Oct 17, 2020 DUKE @ NCSU 20 - 31
Nov 9, 2013 NCSU @ DUKE 20 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.3% more
NC State: 188.1 vs Duke: 108.5
Time of Possession (L5) +11.0% more
NC State: 0.6 vs Duke: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +153.0% more
Duke: 2.1 vs NC State: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NCSU Score 42.0 33
DUKE Score 40.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.1 / 22.3 22.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 108.5 / 188.1 149.0 / 171.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.42 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.6 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 424.7 / 413.1 418.0 / 535.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 0.6 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NCSU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
DUKE
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -6.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
NCSU
DUKE
NCSU
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
ATS
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
TTL
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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