Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arkansas St @ Kennesaw St ARST @ KENN

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

1-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 6:00 PM ET
Fifth Third Stadium
View Odds Details →

KENNESAW STATE

KENNESAW STKENN

1-2  |  Home

28
Key Game
Five Hamilton
KEY GAME

Five Hamilton

#5 | Safety
@
Davis Bryson
KEY GAME

Davis Bryson

#9 | Wide Receiver
Player
Five Hamilton None-None
Davis Bryson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS ST
0%
📊
KENNESAW ST
100%
ARKANSAS ST --
KENNESAW ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
75.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Arkansas State)
Arkansas StARST (-3.5) 0 Kennesaw StKENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arkansas St Cover

99.6%

Kennesaw St Cover

0.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARST -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

ARST By 1-6 points

1.0%

ARST By 7-13 points

3.2%

KENN By 1-6 points

0.3%

KENN By 7-13 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
56
ARKANSAS STATE
19
KENNESAW STATE
Simulated Score
24
ARKANSAS STATE
34
KENNESAW STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Arkansas St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kennesaw St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Arkansas St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -37.0
C
Sim Kennesaw St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 75.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 26, 2026 KENN @ ARST 14 - 17
Sep 20, 2025 ARST @ KENN 21 - 28
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +28.1% more
Arkansas State: 22.1 vs Kennesaw State: 15.9
Total Yards (L5) +20.0% more
Arkansas State: 377.2 vs Kennesaw State: 301.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.0% more
Arkansas State: 158.3 vs Kennesaw State: 134.5
Turnovers (L5) +12.8% more
Arkansas State: 1.3 vs Kennesaw State: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 56.0 21
KENN Score 19.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.9 / 22.1 30.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 134.5 / 158.3 189.0 / 92.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.6 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 301.9 / 377.2 497.0 / 318.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.3 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -1.8
KENN
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -1.8
KENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.3
KENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENN
ARST
KENN
ARST
ML
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
100% 6-0
ATS
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
67% 4-2
TTL
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
33% 2-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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