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BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

1-1  |  Road

49
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Falcon Stadium
View Odds Details →

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

1-1  |  Home

37
Key Game
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
@
Jacob Medina
KEY GAME

Jacob Medina

#39 | Place kicker
Player
Oscar Doyle None-None
Jacob Medina None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOISE ST
100%
📊
AIR FORCE
0%
BOISE ST --
AIR FORCE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
102.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
AIR FORCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Air Force)
Boise StBOIS (-3.5) 0 Air ForceAFA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boise St Cover

38.8%

Air Force Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AFA -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AFA)

BOIS By 1-6 points

14.7%

BOIS By 7-13 points

12.1%

AFA By 1-6 points

17.0%

AFA By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
49
BOISE STATE
53
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
20
BOISE STATE
31
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Air Force Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Air Force Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Air Force (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim Air Force (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 102.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 BOIS @ AFA 49 - 37
Nov 24, 2023 AFA @ BOIS 19 - 27
Oct 22, 2022 BOIS @ AFA 19 - 14
Oct 16, 2021 AFA @ BOIS 24 - 17
Oct 31, 2020 BOIS @ AFA 49 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.9% more
Air Force: 269.1 vs Boise State: 219.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Air Force: 0.6 vs Boise State: 0.5
Total Yards (L5) +16.1% more
Boise State: 480.4 vs Air Force: 403.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 49.0 49
AFA Score 53.0 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.1 / 23.0 24.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 269.1 / 219.0 268.0 / 282.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.7
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 403.2 / 480.4 514.0 / 592.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
81%MONEY19%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
AFA
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
AFA
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +0.5
AFA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AFA
BOIS
AFA
BOIS
ML
33% 1-2
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
ATS
67% 2-1
20% 1-4
100% 4-0
60% 3-2
TTL
67% 2-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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