Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Coastal @ South Alabama CCU @ USA

COASTAL CAROLINA

COASTALCCU

1-2  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Hancock Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

1-2  |  Home

20
Key Game
Se'Von McDowell
KEY GAME

Se'Von McDowell

#19 | Linebacker
@
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
Player
Se'Von McDowell None-None
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COASTAL
100%
📊
SOUTH ALABAMA
0%
COASTAL --
SOUTH ALABAMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (South Alabama)
CoastalCCU (-3.5) 0 South AlabamaUSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Coastal Cover

7.7%

South Alabama Cover

92.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USA -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

CCU By 1-6 points

4.2%

CCU By 7-13 points

2.1%

USA By 1-6 points

8.6%

USA By 7-13 points

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
7
COASTAL CAROLINA
27
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
28
COASTAL CAROLINA
31
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI South Alabama Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim South Alabama Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI South Alabama (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
C
Sim South Alabama (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 34.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 CCU @ USA 38 - 20
Nov 26, 2021 CCU @ USA 27 - 21
Nov 7, 2020 USA @ CCU 6 - 23
Nov 23, 2018 CCU @ USA 28 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.7% more
South Alabama: 176.6 vs Coastal Carolina: 138.3
Total Yards (L5) +25.3% more
South Alabama: 382.4 vs Coastal Carolina: 305.3
First Downs (L5) +8.6% more
South Alabama: 21.0 vs Coastal Carolina: 19.3
Turnovers (L5) +49.1% more
Coastal Carolina: 3.3 vs South Alabama: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CCU Score 7.0 38
USA Score 27.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 19.3 22.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 176.6 / 138.3 223.0 / 182.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 382.4 / 305.3 420.0 / 294.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 3.3 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CCU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: -1.2
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: -1.2
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CCU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.9
USA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
CCU
USA
CCU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
TTL
80% 4-1
25% 1-3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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