Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Stanford @ Virginia STAN @ UVA

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

1-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:30 PM ET
Scott Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

2-1  |  Home

48
Key Game
Aidan Flintoft
KEY GAME

Aidan Flintoft

#37 | Punter
@
Elijah Slibeck
KEY GAME

Elijah Slibeck

#99 | Punter
Player
Aidan Flintoft None-None
Elijah Slibeck None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STANFORD
100%
📊
VIRGINIA
0%
STANFORD --
VIRGINIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
25.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Virginia)
StanfordSTAN (-3.5) 0 VirginiaUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stanford Cover

17.7%

Virginia Cover

82.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UVA -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

STAN By 1-6 points

8.6%

STAN By 7-13 points

5.3%

UVA By 1-6 points

13.5%

UVA By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
STANFORD
19
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
20
STANFORD
27
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Virginia Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Virginia Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Virginia (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim Virginia (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 25.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 STAN @ UVA 20 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +71.8% more
Virginia: 237.5 vs Stanford: 138.2
Total Yards (L5) +59.5% more
Virginia: 497.5 vs Stanford: 311.9
First Downs (L5) +46.7% more
Virginia: 23.9 vs Stanford: 16.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Virginia: 0.5 vs Stanford: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STAN Score 6.0 20
UVA Score 19.0 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.9 / 16.3 29.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 237.5 / 138.2 206.0 / 35.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.54 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 497.5 / 311.9 590.0 / 321.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
UVA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STAN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
UVA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
STAN
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.7
UVA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
STAN
UVA
STAN
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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