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GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

1-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:30 PM ET
FirstBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

VANDERBILTVAN

3-0  |  Home

70
Key Game
Kelan Butler
KEY GAME

Kelan Butler

#45 | Linebacker
@
👤
KEY GAME

Nikhil Jefferson

#93 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Kelan Butler None-None
Nikhil Jefferson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA ST
100%
📊
VANDERBILT
0%
GEORGIA ST --
VANDERBILT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Vanderbilt)
Georgia StGAST (-3.5) 0 VanderbiltVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia St Cover

41.5%

Vanderbilt Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around VAN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

GAST By 1-6 points

15.3%

GAST By 7-13 points

12.9%

VAN By 1-6 points

17.0%

VAN By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24
GEORGIA STATE
27
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
20
GEORGIA STATE
27
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vanderbilt Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Vanderbilt Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vanderbilt (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Vanderbilt (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 GAST @ VAN 21 - 70
Sep 14, 2024 VAN @ GAST 32 - 36
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.7% more
Vanderbilt: 173.7 vs Georgia State: 141.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Vanderbilt: 0.5 vs Georgia State: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +17.4% more
Vanderbilt: 21.2 vs Georgia State: 18.0
Turnovers (L5) +57.2% more
Georgia State: 2.2 vs Vanderbilt: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 24.0 21
VAN Score 27.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 18.0 30.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 173.7 / 141.6 286.0 / 32.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.6 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 371.0 / 400.1 635.0 / 290.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 2.2 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
VAN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
VAN
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
VAN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
GAST
VAN
GAST
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
TTL
100% 5-0
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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