Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Southern Miss @ Louisiana Tech USM @ LT

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

2-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:30 PM ET
Joe Aillet Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA TECH

LOUISIANA TECHLT

2-1  |  Home

30
Key Game
Malakai Murphy
KEY GAME

Malakai Murphy

#19 | Cornerback
@
Dedrick Latulas
KEY GAME

Dedrick Latulas

#3 | Wide Receiver
Player
Malakai Murphy None-None
Dedrick Latulas None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTHERN MISS
100%
📊
LOUISIANA TECH
0%
SOUTHERN MISS --
LOUISIANA TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Louisiana Tech)
Southern MissUSM (-3.5) 0 Louisiana TechLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Southern Miss Cover

6.7%

Louisiana Tech Cover

93.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LT -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LT)

USM By 1-6 points

3.8%

USM By 7-13 points

1.8%

LT By 1-6 points

7.9%

LT By 7-13 points

14.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3
SOUTHERN MISS
24
LOUISIANA TECH
Simulated Score
24
SOUTHERN MISS
27
LOUISIANA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Louisiana Tech Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisiana Tech Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Louisiana Tech (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim Louisiana Tech (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 27.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 USM @ LT 20 - 30
Nov 19, 2021 USM @ LT 35 - 19
Sep 19, 2020 LT @ USM 31 - 30
Oct 19, 2019 USM @ LT 30 - 45
Nov 17, 2018 LT @ USM 20 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +61.4% more
Louisiana Tech: 183.6 vs Southern Miss: 113.8
Turnovers (L5) +38.1% more
Southern Miss: 1.1 vs Louisiana Tech: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 3.0 20
LT Score 24.0 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 19.0 14.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards 183.6 / 113.8 101.0 / 122.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.15 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 353.9 / 336.3 339.0 / 514.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
LT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +9.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
LT Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +9.1
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
LT
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +13.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LT
USM
LT
USM
ML
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
ATS
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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