Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / BYU @ East Carolina BYU @ ECU

BYU

BYUBYU

2-0  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 7:30 PM ET
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

2-1  |  Home

13
Key Game
Tiger Bachmeier
KEY GAME

Tiger Bachmeier

#19 | Wide Receiver
@
Jackson Barker
KEY GAME

Jackson Barker

#1 | Linebacker
Player
Tiger Bachmeier None-None
Jackson Barker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BYU
0%
📊
EAST CAROLINA
100%
BYU --
EAST CAROLINA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
BYU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (BYU)
BYUBYU (-3.5) 0 East CarolinaECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

BYU Cover

91.3%

East Carolina Cover

8.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BYU -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)

BYU By 1-6 points

9.3%

BYU By 7-13 points

16.1%

ECU By 1-6 points

4.8%

ECU By 7-13 points

2.4%

AI Model Projected Score
26
BYU
7
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
17
BYU
31
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI BYU Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim East Carolina Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI BYU (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
C
Sim East Carolina (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 33.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 BYU @ ECU 34 - 13
Oct 28, 2022 ECU @ BYU 27 - 24
Oct 21, 2017 BYU @ ECU 17 - 33
Oct 10, 2015 ECU @ BYU 38 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +30.7% more
BYU: 1.3 vs East Carolina: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.0% more
BYU: 230.3 vs East Carolina: 179.6
Total Yards (L5) +18.0% more
East Carolina: 482.6 vs BYU: 409.1
First Downs (L5) +11.4% more
East Carolina: 24.9 vs BYU: 22.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BYU Score 26.0 34
ECU Score 7.0 13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.9 / 22.3 24.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 179.6 / 230.3 119.0 / 172.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 482.6 / 409.1 404.0 / 418.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.3 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BYU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 23.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
ECU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BYU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 23.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
ECU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
BYU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.8
ECU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
BYU
ECU
BYU
ML
50% 2-2
100% 3-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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