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MICHIGAN STATE

MICHIGAN STMSU

3-0  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Sep 20 • 11:00 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
View Odds Details →

USC

USCUSC

3-0  |  Home

45
Key Game
Ben Roberts
KEY GAME

Ben Roberts

#55 | Defensive Lineman
@
Ryon Sayeri
KEY GAME

Ryon Sayeri

#48 | Punter
Player
Ben Roberts None-None
Ryon Sayeri None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MICHIGAN ST
100%
📊
USC
0%
MICHIGAN ST --
USC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
102.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (USC)
Michigan StMSU (-3.5) 0 USCUSC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Michigan St Cover

23.8%

USC Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USC -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)

MSU By 1-6 points

10.7%

MSU By 7-13 points

7.3%

USC By 1-6 points

15.3%

USC By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
46
MICHIGAN STATE
56
USC
Simulated Score
24
MICHIGAN STATE
38
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI USC Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim USC Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI USC (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim USC (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 102.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2025 MSU @ USC 31 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +46.6% more
USC: 539.4 vs Michigan State: 368.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.6% more
USC: 203.5 vs Michigan State: 147.9
First Downs (L5) +21.1% more
USC: 24.7 vs Michigan State: 20.4
Turnovers (L5) +11.9% more
Michigan State: 1.1 vs USC: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSU Score 46.0 31
USC Score 56.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.7 / 20.4 27.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 203.5 / 147.9 289.0 / 112.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 539.4 / 368.0 523.0 / 337.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
USC Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: -7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSU Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -1.9
USC
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: -7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
USC
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
MSU
USC
MSU
ML
100% 6-0
100% 5-0
83% 5-1
60% 3-2
ATS
67% 4-2
50% 2-2-1
67% 4-2
25% 1-3-1
TTL
50% 3-3
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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