TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
87-62 | Road
2
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
73-76 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braydon Fisher
#63 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Jax
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braydon Fisher | None-None | 2.78 | -- | 2.0 | 4 |
| Griffin Jax | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.78 Ldr
ERA
4.50
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
59%
RAYS
41%
BLUE JAYS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TOR By 1-2 runs
8.9%
TOR By 3-4 runs
4.2%
TB By 1-2 runs
17.2%
TB By 3-4 runs
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.41
TORONTO
Tampa Bay
7.02
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.6
C
Sim
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
TOR @ TB
5 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
TOR @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 18, 2026
TOR @ TB
10 - 5
Jul 23, 2026
TB @ TOR
1 - 3
Jul 22, 2026
TB @ TOR
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.692
OPS
▲
.728
152
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+88.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.7
vs
Toronto: 0.8
Walks (L5)
+29.0% more
Tampa Bay: 3.8
vs
Toronto: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+20.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.3
vs
Toronto: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+13.5% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.4
2
TB Score
7.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 11.2
4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 8.4
10.0 / 18.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 17.0
5.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.0
0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
TOR
TB
TOR
ML
58%
95-68
46%
74-87
58%
95-68
50%
80-80
ATS
60%
97-66
56%
90-71
55%
90-73
49%
79-81
TTL
47%
73-81-9
51%
80-76-5
51%
78-75-10
45%
70-85-5
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…