Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisiana @ Missouri UL @ MIZ

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

1-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 1:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

2-0  |  Home

52
Key Game
Brek Schultz
KEY GAME

Brek Schultz

#25 | Place kicker
@
DaMarion Fowlkes
KEY GAME

DaMarion Fowlkes

#3 | Wide Receiver
Player
Brek Schultz None-None
DaMarion Fowlkes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISIANA
100%
📊
MISSOURI
0%
LOUISIANA --
MISSOURI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Missouri)
LouisianaUL (-3.5) 0 MissouriMIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisiana Cover

0.1%

Missouri Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIZ -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)

UL By 1-6 points

0.0%

UL By 7-13 points

0.0%

MIZ By 1-6 points

0.2%

MIZ By 7-13 points

0.9%

AI Model Projected Score
6
LOUISIANA
51
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
17
LOUISIANA
31
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Missouri Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Missouri Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Missouri (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Sim Missouri (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 UL @ MIZ 10 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +49.1% more
Missouri: 490.0 vs Louisiana: 328.7
First Downs (L5) +26.9% more
Missouri: 24.2 vs Louisiana: 19.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Missouri: 0.5 vs Louisiana: 0.4
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Missouri: 0.6 vs Louisiana: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 6.0 10
MIZ Score 51.0 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.2 / 19.1 32.0 / 4.0
Rushing Yards 200.7 / 195.8 427.0 / 117.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.69 / 0.09
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.71 / 0.29
Total Yards 490.0 / 328.7 606.0 / 121.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
MIZ
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
MIZ
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.7
MIZ
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
UL
MIZ
UL
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
75% 3-1-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
TTL
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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