USC
USCUSC
2-0 | Road
33
PURDUE
PURDUEPUR
2-0 | Home
17
Key Game
KEY GAME
Ryon Sayeri
#48 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Ian Jeffries
#40 | Defensive Lineman| Player | |
|---|---|
| Ryon Sayeri | None-None |
| Ian Jeffries | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
USC
0%
PURDUE
100%
USC
--
PURDUE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
75.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (USC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USC -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)
USC By 1-6 points
1.0%
USC By 7-13 points
3.2%
PUR By 1-6 points
0.3%
PUR By 7-13 points
0.1%
AI Model Projected Score
USC
56
USC
Purdue
19
PURDUE
Simulated Score
USC
24
USC
Purdue
38
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
USC
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Purdue
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
USC (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
C
Sim
Purdue (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 75.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2025
USC @ PUR
33 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+46.6% more
USC: 216.2
vs
Purdue: 115.4
Total Yards (L5)
+43.6% more
USC: 579.2
vs
Purdue: 326.4
First Downs (L5)
+21.3% more
USC: 26.1
vs
Purdue: 20.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+18.0% more
USC: 0.6
vs
Purdue: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
USC Score
56.0
33
PUR Score
19.0
17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
20.5 / 26.1
23.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards
115.4 / 216.2
52.0 / 178.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.6
0.5 / 0.31
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards
326.4 / 579.2
357.0 / 460.0
Turnovers
1.4 / 1.4
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USC
Advantage
5-1-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.8
ATS +/-: -7.3
PUR
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -4.6
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USC
1-5-0
(16.7%)
Margin: 11.8
ATS +/-: -7.3
PUR
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -4.6
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
USC
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +4.7
PUR
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
USC
PUR
USC
ML
80%
4-1
100%
6-0
80%
4-1
83%
5-1
ATS
25%
1-3-1
67%
4-2
50%
2-2-1
67%
4-2
TTL
60%
3-2
50%
3-3
40%
2-3
50%
3-3
Contextual Game News
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Purdue Insider Breaks Down Gophers Clash, NIL Challenges, and Ij…
UCLA Gears Up for Dual Threat: Oregon's Raiola and Moore Demand …