DETROIT
TIGERSDET
84-65 | Road
2
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
70-79 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Keider Montero
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Javier Sanoja
#8 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keider Montero | None-None | 4.32 | -- | 5.0 | 5 |
| Javier Sanoja | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.32
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
5
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
59%
MARLINS
41%
TIGERS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
79%
Under 0
21%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
DET By 1-2 runs
15.9%
DET By 3-4 runs
10.2%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
16.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
4.57
DETROIT
Miami
5.73
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
MIA @ DET
2 - 8
Apr 11, 2026
MIA @ DET
1 - 6
Apr 10, 2026
MIA @ DET
0 - 2
Sep 14, 2025
DET @ MIA
2 - 0
Sep 13, 2025
DET @ MIA
4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
▲
.727
181
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+42.7% more
Miami: 1.7
vs
Detroit: 1.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+19.5% more
Miami: 9.4
vs
Detroit: 7.8
Total Bases (L5)
+11.6% more
Miami: 15.4
vs
Detroit: 13.8
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.8%
Miami: 24.9%
vs
Detroit: 24.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
4.6
2
MIA Score
5.7
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
3.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 8.4
7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 7.8
7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 13.8
7.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.5
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
DET
MIA
DET
ML
48%
78-84
54%
86-73
55%
88-72
54%
87-73
ATS
56%
91-71
64%
101-58
54%
86-74
57%
91-69
TTL
56%
88-69-5
46%
69-81-9
53%
82-73-5
46%
69-81-10
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
LSU's Defense Dominates Early, But Real Test Awaits
Dodgers Predicted to Re-Sign $32M Ace Tarik Skubal, Keeping Rota…
Otto Lopez Emerges as Marlins' Breakout Star in 2026
!role~Preview!mt~photo!fmt~JPEG%20Baseline)
Tarik Skubal Set for First Home Playoff Start as Dodgers Host Br…