COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
41-108 | Road
6
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
81-68 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jimmy Herget
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Herget | None-None | 2.64 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
| Mason Miller | None-None | 2.89 | -- | 1.1 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.64 Ldr
ERA
2.89
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
24%
PADRES
76%
ROCKIES
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
COL By 1-2 runs
12.8%
COL By 3-4 runs
7.2%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.4%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
2.35
COLORADO
San Diego
4.61
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
Colorado
5
COLORADO
San Diego
7
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Win
76% Win Prob
B
Sim
Padres
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
C
Sim
Padres (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
SD @ COL
9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026
SD @ COL
9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026
SD @ COL
3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026
SD @ COL
8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026
COL @ SD
1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.64
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.254
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.739
OPS
▲
.925
180
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+138.0% more
San Diego: 2.0
vs
Colorado: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+54.5% more
San Diego: 15.2
vs
Colorado: 9.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+44.4% more
San Diego: 10.8
vs
Colorado: 7.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+29.3% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Colorado: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
2.4
6
SD Score
4.6
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 6.7
14.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 0.6
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.8 / 7.5
13.0 / 2.0
Total Bases
15.2 / 9.8
19.0 / 15.0
Walks
1.5 / 2.6
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
COL
SD
COL
ML
51%
85-83
60%
97-64
51%
85-82
55%
88-73
ATS
54%
91-77
60%
97-64
55%
92-75
52%
83-78
TTL
51%
82-80-6
60%
93-62-6
54%
86-74-6
50%
77-78-6
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