DETROIT
TIGERSDET
84-64 | Road
4
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
69-79 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Troy Melton
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Petersen
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Melton | None-None | 2.54 | -- | 3.0 | 1 |
| Michael Petersen | None-None | 2.08 | -- | 1.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.54
ERA
Ldr 2.08
--
WHIP
--
3.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
60%
MARLINS
40%
TIGERS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
DET By 1-2 runs
16.1%
DET By 3-4 runs
10.4%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
16.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
4.75
DETROIT
Miami
5.83
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Detroit
4
DETROIT
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.6
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 12, 2026
MIA @ DET
2 - 8
Apr 11, 2026
MIA @ DET
1 - 6
Apr 10, 2026
MIA @ DET
0 - 2
Sep 14, 2025
DET @ MIA
2 - 0
Sep 13, 2025
DET @ MIA
4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
▲
.727
181
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+29.0% more
Miami: 0.4
vs
Detroit: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+19.8% more
Miami: 1.5
vs
Detroit: 1.3
Hits (L5)
+13.2% more
Miami: 8.7
vs
Detroit: 7.7
Total Bases (L5)
+10.3% more
Miami: 15.1
vs
Detroit: 13.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
4.8
4
MIA Score
5.8
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.7 / 7.7
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.3
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 8.3
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 13.7
16.0 / 14.0
Walks
1.8 / 2.7
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
DET
MIA
DET
ML
48%
78-84
54%
86-73
55%
88-72
54%
87-73
ATS
56%
91-71
64%
101-58
54%
86-74
57%
91-69
TTL
56%
88-69-5
46%
69-81-9
53%
82-73-5
46%
69-81-10
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