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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

84-63  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Sep 12 • 7:10 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

68-79  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Zach McKinstry
STARTING PITCHER

Zach McKinstry

#39 | Right Field
@
Cade Gibson
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Gibson

#58 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Zach McKinstry None-None -- -- -- --
Cade Gibson None-None 3.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
61%
📊
MARLINS
39%
TIGERS --
MARLINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 74%
Under 0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

61.1%

Marlins Cover

38.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

16.6%

MIA By 1-2 runs

16.0%

MIA By 3-4 runs

10.2%

AI Model Projected Score
5.82
DETROIT
4.69
MIAMI
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Marlins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Marlins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.5
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 MIA @ DET 2 - 8
Apr 11, 2026 MIA @ DET 1 - 6
Apr 10, 2026 MIA @ DET 0 - 2
Sep 14, 2025 DET @ MIA 2 - 0
Sep 13, 2025 DET @ MIA 4 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720
OPS
▲ .727
181 ▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +52.7% more
Detroit: 3.6 vs Miami: 1.7
Home Runs (L5) +45.3% more
Detroit: 1.4 vs Miami: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +20.7% more
Detroit: 16.5 vs Miami: 13.1
Strikeouts (L5) +13.4% more
Detroit: 9.9 vs Miami: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 5.8 2
MIA Score 4.7 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 9.5 8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.4 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 9.9 10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 16.5 19.0 / 8.0
Walks 1.7 / 3.6 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
DET
MIA
DET
ML
48% 78-84
54% 86-73
55% 88-72
54% 87-73
ATS
56% 91-71
64% 101-58
54% 86-74
57% 91-69
TTL
56% 88-69-5
46% 69-81-9
53% 82-73-5
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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