Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Padres COL @ SD

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

40-107  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Sep 12 • 9:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

80-67  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jimmy Herget
STARTING PITCHER

Jimmy Herget

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jimmy Herget None-None 2.43 -- 1.0 1
Wandy Peralta None-None 3.27 -- 1.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.43 Ldr ERA 3.27
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
24%
📊
PADRES
76%
ROCKIES --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (San Diego)
RockiesCOL (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

41.1%

Padres Cover

58.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

COL By 1-2 runs

16.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.9%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.5%

SD By 3-4 runs

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3
COLORADO
3.9
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
7
COLORADO
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Loss
76% Win Prob
B
Sim Rockies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim Rockies (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 SD @ COL 9 - 3
Sep 15, 2026 SD @ COL 3 - 9
Sep 14, 2026 SD @ COL 8 - 7
Jul 29, 2026 COL @ SD 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.64
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.254
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.322
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.417
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.739
OPS
▲ .925
180 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +71.1% more
San Diego: 11.0 vs Colorado: 6.4
Home Runs (L5) +60.0% more
San Diego: 0.9 vs Colorado: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +59.5% more
San Diego: 11.3 vs Colorado: 7.1
Hits (L5) +48.1% more
San Diego: 6.7 vs Colorado: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.0 4
SD Score 3.9 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.7 / 4.5 5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.3 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 11.3 / 7.1 11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 11.0 / 6.4 9.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.2 / 2.2 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
3%MONEY97%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
COL
SD
COL
ML
51% 85-83
60% 97-64
51% 85-82
55% 88-73
ATS
54% 91-77
60% 97-64
55% 92-75
52% 83-78
TTL
51% 82-80-6
60% 93-62-6
54% 86-74-6
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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