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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

74-72  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Sep 11 • 7:15 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

74-71  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Stephen Kolek
STARTING PITCHER

Stephen Kolek

#32 | SP
@
Cade Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Cade Smith

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Stephen Kolek None-None 3.71 -- 6.2 4
Cade Smith None-None 3.15 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.71 ERA Ldr 3.15
-- WHIP --
6.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
50%
📊
GUARDIANS
50%
ROYALS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

39.9%

Guardians Cover

60.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

KC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.4
KANSAS CITY
4.42
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Guardians (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 CLE @ KC 2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026 CLE @ KC 11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026 CLE @ KC 12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 KC @ CLE 1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026 KC @ CLE 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.718 ▲
OPS
.696
170 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +58.0% more
Cleveland: 0.7 vs Kansas City: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +50.5% more
Cleveland: 13.1 vs Kansas City: 8.7
Home Runs (L5) +50.0% more
Cleveland: 0.8 vs Kansas City: 0.3
Hits (L5) +31.7% more
Cleveland: 8.6 vs Kansas City: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.4 2
CLE Score 4.4 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 6.5 5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 8.2 11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 8.7 10.0 / 9.0
Walks 1.5 / 3.6 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
KC
CLE
KC
ML
54% 87-74
55% 89-72
49% 80-82
56% 90-70
ATS
58% 93-68
57% 91-70
59% 95-67
58% 93-67
TTL
55% 88-71-2
58% 90-64-7
43% 69-90-2
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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