Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Phillies NYM @ PHI

NEW YORK

METSNYM

76-70  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Sep 11 • 7:15 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

86-60  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
@
Jhoan Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Jhoan Duran

#59 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
Jhoan Duran None-None 1.83 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 1.83
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
METS
43%
📊
PHILLIES
57%
METS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Philadelphia)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

24.4%

Phillies Cover

75.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

NYM By 1-2 runs

11.3%

NYM By 3-4 runs

5.9%

PHI By 1-2 runs

18.8%

PHI By 3-4 runs

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.89
NEW YORK
7.66
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Phillies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.8
D
Sim Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.6
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 PHI @ NYM 7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026 NYM @ PHI 6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.705
OPS
▲ .724
204 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +72.3% more
Philadelphia: 1.7 vs New York: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +49.4% more
Philadelphia: 18.6 vs New York: 12.4
Hits (L5) +45.2% more
Philadelphia: 11.3 vs New York: 7.8
Errors (L5) +11.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.2 vs New York: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.9 4
PHI Score 7.7 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.3 / 7.8 11.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 9.6 13.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 18.6 / 12.4 19.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.3 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
NYM
PHI
NYM
ML
59% 97-67
50% 79-80
49% 80-84
48% 76-83
ATS
65% 107-57
58% 93-66
51% 83-81
49% 78-81
TTL
57% 88-67-9
55% 80-66-13
51% 78-76-9
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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