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PHILADELPHIA

EAGLESPHI

1-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Sep 14 • 4:25 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

0-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
Hollywood Brown
KEY GAME

Hollywood Brown

#0 | Wide Receiver
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
Hollywood Brown None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
📊
CHIEFS
100%
EAGLES --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Philadelphia)
EaglesPHI (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

56.8%

Chiefs Cover

43.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PHI -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-6 points

16.9%

PHI By 7-13 points

17.1%

KC By 1-6 points

15.5%

KC By 7-13 points

13.4%

AI Model Projected Score
24.81
PHILADELPHIA
22.41
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
24
PHILADELPHIA
27
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chiefs Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.4
D
Sim Chiefs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 14, 2025 PHI @ KC 20 - 17
Feb 9, 2025 KC @ PHI 22 - 40
Nov 20, 2023 PHI @ KC 21 - 17
Feb 12, 2023 KC @ PHI 38 - 35
Oct 3, 2021 KC @ PHI 42 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +52.3% more
Philadelphia: 174.6 vs Kansas City: 83.3
First Downs (L5) +17.1% more
Philadelphia: 20.9 vs Kansas City: 17.3
Time of Possession (L5) +12.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.6 vs Kansas City: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +11.2% more
Philadelphia: 344.0 vs Kansas City: 305.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 24.8 20
KC Score 22.4 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.3 / 20.9 17.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 222.1 / 169.4 173.0 / 94.0
Rushing Yards 83.3 / 174.6 121.0 / 122.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.6 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 305.4 / 344.0 294.0 / 216.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 5.3 5.2 / 3.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
KC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: -0.1
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
PHI
KC
PHI
ML
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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