Home / NFL Projections NFL / Falcons @ Vikings ATL @ MIN

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

0-1  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sun, Sep 14 • 8:20 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

1-0  |  Home

6
Key Game
DeAngelo Malone
KEY GAME

DeAngelo Malone

#50 | Linebacker
@
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
Player
DeAngelo Malone None-None
Will Reichard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
VIKINGS
0%
FALCONS --
VIKINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.4
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.4 points (Minnesota)
FalconsATL (-3.5) 0 VikingsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

30.0%

Vikings Cover

70.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIN -7.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

ATL By 1-6 points

12.6%

ATL By 7-13 points

9.3%

MIN By 1-6 points

16.3%

MIN By 7-13 points

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
13.9
ATLANTA
21.26
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
21
ATLANTA
24
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Vikings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Vikings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.4
D
Sim Vikings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 35.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 14, 2025 ATL @ MIN 22 - 6
Dec 8, 2024 ATL @ MIN 21 - 42
Nov 5, 2023 MIN @ ATL 31 - 28
Oct 18, 2020 ATL @ MIN 40 - 23
Sep 8, 2019 ATL @ MIN 12 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +15.0% more
Minnesota: 1.0 vs Atlanta: 0.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +27.8% more
Atlanta: 257.7 vs Minnesota: 186.1
First Downs (L5) +24.8% more
Atlanta: 24.0 vs Minnesota: 18.0
Total Yards (L5) +24.7% more
Atlanta: 390.3 vs Minnesota: 293.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 13.9 22
MIN Score 21.3 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.0 / 24.0 10.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 186.1 / 257.7 120.0 / 108.0
Rushing Yards 107.8 / 132.6 78.0 / 218.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 293.9 / 390.3 198.0 / 326.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.9 4.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.9 / 5.6 4.3 / 5.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
ATL
MIN
ATL
ML
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
0% 0-4
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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