BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
81-65 | Road
4
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
66-80 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hogan Harris
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.14 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Hogan Harris | None-None | 3.46 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.14 Ldr
ERA
3.46
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
60%
ATHLETICS
40%
RED SOX
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.3
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.3 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -4.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
15.5%
BOS By 3-4 runs
19.3%
ATH By 1-2 runs
7.0%
ATH By 3-4 runs
3.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
7.02
BOSTON
Athletics
2.71
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Athletics
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Athletics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.3
D
Sim
Athletics (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
ATH @ BOS
4 - 3
Aug 8, 2026
ATH @ BOS
7 - 3
Aug 7, 2026
ATH @ BOS
1 - 13
Jul 30, 2026
BOS @ ATH
5 - 4
Jul 29, 2026
BOS @ ATH
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Athletics
ATH
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.409
OPS
▲
.719
2
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+22.6% more
Boston: 1.2
vs
Athletics: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+18.9% more
Boston: 16.0
vs
Athletics: 13.0
Home Runs (Season)
+9600.0% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+331.0% more
Athletics: 4.3
vs
Boston: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
7.0
4
ATH Score
2.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 9.5
12.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.2
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 9.7
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.0 / 16.0
22.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.2
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATH
Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
BOS
ATH
BOS
ML
59%
95-67
50%
80-80
54%
87-74
47%
76-87
ATS
52%
84-78
58%
93-67
50%
81-80
48%
79-84
TTL
54%
84-73-5
46%
72-83-5
42%
66-90-5
47%
74-83-6
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