KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
73-72 | Road
4
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
74-70 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Erik Sabrowski
#62 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 2.58 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Erik Sabrowski | None-None | 2.05 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.58
ERA
Ldr 2.05
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
49%
GUARDIANS
51%
ROYALS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
68%
Under 0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
KC By 1-2 runs
16.5%
KC By 3-4 runs
10.9%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.5%
CLE By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
3.53
KANSAS CITY
Cleveland
4.44
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
CLE @ KC
2 - 3
Sep 26, 2026
CLE @ KC
11 - 5
Sep 25, 2026
CLE @ KC
12 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
KC @ CLE
1 - 11
Aug 29, 2026
KC @ CLE
8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.26
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.316
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.718
▲
OPS
.696
170
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+75.8% more
Cleveland: 14.2
vs
Kansas City: 8.1
Hits (L5)
+62.5% more
Cleveland: 9.3
vs
Kansas City: 5.7
Home Runs (L5)
+25.0% more
Cleveland: 0.6
vs
Kansas City: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+40.5% more
Kansas City: 2.9
vs
Cleveland: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
3.5
4
CLE Score
4.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 5.7
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 9.3
6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 8.1
11.0 / 10.0
Walks
1.7 / 2.9
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
KC
CLE
KC
ML
54%
87-74
55%
89-72
49%
80-82
56%
90-70
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
91-70
59%
95-67
58%
93-67
TTL
55%
88-71-2
58%
90-64-7
43%
69-90-2
54%
83-70-7
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