HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
78-67 | Road
3
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
83-61 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Brendon Little | None-None | 3.10 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.45 Ldr
ERA
3.10
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
46%
BLUE JAYS
54%
ASTROS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.4%
HOU By 3-4 runs
18.8%
TOR By 1-2 runs
13.0%
TOR By 3-4 runs
7.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
5.81
HOUSTON
Toronto
3.6
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
TOR @ HOU
5 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
TOR @ HOU
2 - 7
Aug 3, 2026
TOR @ HOU
3 - 1
Jun 24, 2026
HOU @ TOR
3 - 1
Jun 23, 2026
HOU @ TOR
9 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.582
OPS
▲
.692
4
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+59.0% more
Houston: 0.9
vs
Toronto: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+12.1% more
Houston: 9.2
vs
Toronto: 8.1
Hits (L5)
+8.9% more
Houston: 9.6
vs
Toronto: 8.8
Home Runs (Season)
+3700.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
5.8
3
TOR Score
3.6
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 9.6
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.0
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.1 / 9.2
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 15.3
8.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.8
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
HOU
TOR
HOU
ML
46%
74-87
50%
81-82
50%
80-80
47%
77-87
ATS
56%
90-71
56%
91-72
49%
79-81
55%
90-74
TTL
51%
80-76-5
45%
70-84-9
45%
70-85-5
45%
69-86-9
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