NEW YORK
METSNYM
76-68 | Road
3
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
84-60 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Manaea
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryson Stott
#5 | Second Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea | None-None | 5.76 | -- | 5.0 | 5 |
| Bryson Stott | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.76
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
5
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
METS
44%
PHILLIES
56%
METS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
NYM By 1-2 runs
18.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
13.3%
PHI By 1-2 runs
18.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
13.8%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
6.16
NEW YORK
Philadelphia
6.24
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
C
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
PHI @ NYM
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026
NYM @ PHI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.705
OPS
▲
.724
204
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+25.0% more
Philadelphia: 8.4
vs
New York: 6.8
Errors (L5)
+25.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.4
vs
New York: 0.1
Total Bases (L5)
+13.3% more
Philadelphia: 13.3
vs
New York: 11.7
Slugging Pct (Season)
+4.3%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
New York: 39.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
6.2
3
PHI Score
6.2
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 6.8
13.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.0
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 8.6
14.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 11.7
24.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.9
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
NYM
PHI
NYM
ML
59%
97-67
50%
79-80
49%
80-84
48%
76-83
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-66
51%
83-81
49%
78-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
55%
80-66-13
51%
78-76-9
51%
74-72-13
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