Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Athletics BOS @ ATH

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

80-65  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Sep 9 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

66-79  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Justin Slaten

#63 | Relief Pitcher
@
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Justin Slaten None-None 4.45 -- 1.0 1
Elvis Alvarado None-None 3.63 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.45 ERA Ldr 3.63
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
60%
📊
ATHLETICS
40%
RED SOX --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

83.0%

Athletics Cover

17.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

16.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

19.7%

ATH By 1-2 runs

8.3%

ATH By 3-4 runs

3.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6.88
BOSTON
3.06
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
BOSTON
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
60% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.8
C
Sim Athletics (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 ATH @ BOS 4 - 3
Aug 8, 2026 ATH @ BOS 7 - 3
Aug 7, 2026 ATH @ BOS 1 - 13
Jul 30, 2026 BOS @ ATH 5 - 4
Jul 29, 2026 BOS @ ATH 4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Athletics ATH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.409
OPS
▲ .719
2
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +16.5% more
Boston: 9.7 vs Athletics: 8.1
Home Runs (Season) +9600.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +331.0% more
Athletics: 4.3 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +58.0% more
Athletics: 1.4 vs Boston: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 6.9 6
ATH Score 3.1 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 9.7 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 8.1 10.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 14.0 / 14.5 11.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.3 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
BOS
ATH
BOS
ML
59% 95-67
50% 80-80
54% 87-74
47% 76-87
ATS
52% 84-78
58% 93-67
50% 81-80
48% 79-84
TTL
54% 84-73-5
46% 72-83-5
42% 66-90-5
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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