TOWSON
TOWSONTOW
2-0 | Road
17
MARYLAND
MARYLANDMD
2-0 | Home
44
Key Game
KEY GAME
Chris Koffi
#9 | Linebacker@
KEY GAME
Bryce McFerson
#34 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Chris Koffi | None-None |
| Bryce McFerson | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TOWSON
44%
MARYLAND
56%
TOWSON
--
MARYLAND
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
28.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MARYLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Maryland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MD -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MD)
TOW By 1-6 points
13.5%
TOW By 7-13 points
10.4%
MD By 1-6 points
16.7%
MD By 7-13 points
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Towson
11
TOWSON
Maryland
17
MARYLAND
Simulated Score
Towson
10
TOWSON
Maryland
45
MARYLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Maryland
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maryland
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Maryland (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Maryland (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 28.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2025
TOW @ MD
17 - 44
Sep 2, 2023
TOW @ MD
6 - 38
Sep 9, 2017
TOW @ MD
17 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+21.8% more
Maryland: 1.3
vs
Towson: 1.1
First Downs (L5)
+14.8% more
Maryland: 19.7
vs
Towson: 17.2
Rushing Yards (L5)
+27.8% more
Towson: 129.9
vs
Maryland: 93.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOW Score
11.0
17
MD Score
17.0
44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.7 / 17.2
21.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards
93.8 / 129.9
152.0 / 51.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.3
0.36 / 0.08
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards
328.2 / 318.9
428.0 / 281.0
Turnovers
1.3 / 1.1
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOW
--
MD
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -7.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOW
--
MD
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -7.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TOW
--
MD
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MD
TOW
MD
TOW
ML
60%
3-2
67%
2-1
40%
2-3
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-5
67%
2-1
0%
0-5
33%
1-2
TTL
60%
3-2
33%
1-2
40%
2-3
67%
2-1
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