Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Samford @ Baylor SAM @ BAY

SAMFORD

SAMFORDSAM

0-2  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 12:00 PM ET
McLane Stadium
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BAYLORBAY

1-1  |  Home

42
Key Game
Jake Garner
KEY GAME

Jake Garner

#26 | Place kicker
@
Kaleb Burns
KEY GAME

Kaleb Burns

#41 | Linebacker
Player
Jake Garner None-None
Kaleb Burns None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAMFORD
20%
📊
BAYLOR
80%
SAMFORD --
BAYLOR --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Baylor)
SamfordSAM (-3.5) 0 BaylorBAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Samford Cover

0.1%

Baylor Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BAY -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

SAM By 1-6 points

0.0%

SAM By 7-13 points

0.0%

BAY By 1-6 points

0.2%

BAY By 7-13 points

0.9%

AI Model Projected Score
6
SAMFORD
51
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
13
SAMFORD
48
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Baylor Win
80% Win Prob
D
Sim Baylor Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Baylor (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
D
Sim Baylor (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 SAM @ BAY 7 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +123.3% more
Baylor: 142.5 vs Samford: 63.8
Total Yards (L5) +113.9% more
Baylor: 528.0 vs Samford: 246.9
First Downs (L5) +99.1% more
Baylor: 28.2 vs Samford: 14.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Baylor: 0.4 vs Samford: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAM Score 6.0 7
BAY Score 51.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 28.2 / 14.1 29.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 142.5 / 63.8 223.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.31 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 528.0 / 246.9 468.0 / 195.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.7 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAM
--
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAM
--
BAY Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.6 ATS +/-: +9.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAM
--
BAY
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
SAM
BAY
SAM
ML
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
ATS
20% 1-4
100% 2-0
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
TTL
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Red River Rivalry Rebooted: Why Texas-Oklahoma No Longer Decides…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Stephen A. Smith Highlights Kirby Smart's 2-7 Record Against Ala…
newsweek 5 hours, 48 minutes ago
Boston College Hockey Secures Commitment from USNTDP Forward Sam…
si 1 day ago
Purdue Insider Breaks Down Gophers Clash, NIL Challenges, and Ij…
twincities 1 day, 6 hours ago
Georgia Holds No. 2 AP Ranking as Showdown with Alabama Looms
yahoo 3 days, 12 hours ago