Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Alabama @ Auburn USA @ AUB

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

1-1  |  Road

15
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 12:45 PM ET
Jordan-Hare Stadium
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

2-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
@
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
Player
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
Hudson Kaak None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH ALABAMA
100%
📊
AUBURN
0%
SOUTH ALABAMA --
AUBURN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
72.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Auburn)
South AlabamaUSA (-3.5) 0 AuburnAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Alabama Cover

19.6%

Auburn Cover

80.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AUB -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

USA By 1-6 points

9.3%

USA By 7-13 points

5.9%

AUB By 1-6 points

14.2%

AUB By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
30
SOUTH ALABAMA
42
AUBURN
Simulated Score
17
SOUTH ALABAMA
38
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Auburn Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Auburn Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Auburn (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
C
Sim Auburn (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 72.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 USA @ AUB 15 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Auburn: 0.5 vs South Alabama: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +14.5% more
Auburn: 24.5 vs South Alabama: 21.4
Turnovers (L5) +36.8% more
South Alabama: 1.5 vs Auburn: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 30.0 15
AUB Score 42.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.5 / 21.4 19.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 209.0 / 194.9 195.0 / 140.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.54 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 446.5 / 418.6 337.0 / 310.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +4.5
AUB
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +4.5
AUB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
5-1-0
O: 83.3% / U: 16.7% Total +/-: +19.5
AUB
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
USA
AUB
USA
ML
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
83% 5-1
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 3-3
60% 3-2
83% 5-1
TTL
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
0% 0-5
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
South Alabama Outlasts Arkansas State 56-49 in Season's Highest-…
hjnews 0 minutes ago
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State: Live Stream, TV Channel, and G…
yahoo 3 hours, 50 minutes ago
Tennessee's Defense Shows Grit in Win Over Auburn, Fueling SEC H…
si 3 days, 9 hours ago
AP Voters Split on Missouri-Florida After Tigers' Blowout Win
dailygazette 3 days, 15 hours ago
Auburn Fans Call for Offensive Coordinator's Job After Frustrati…
si 4 days, 4 hours ago