Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UConn @ Delaware CONN @ DEL

UCONN

UCONNCONN

1-1  |  Road

41
FINAL
Sat, Sep 13 • 3:00 PM ET
Delaware Stadium
View Odds Details →

DELAWARE

DELAWAREDEL

1-1  |  Home

44
Key Game
Kylish Hicks
KEY GAME

Kylish Hicks

#18 | Linebacker
@
Jamarion Kolagbodi
KEY GAME

Jamarion Kolagbodi

#18 | Cornerback
Player
Kylish Hicks None-None
Jamarion Kolagbodi None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCONN
69%
📊
DELAWARE
31%
UCONN --
DELAWARE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
88.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 44%
Under 0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
DELAWARE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Delaware)
UConnCONN (-3.5) 0 DelawareDEL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UConn Cover

38.8%

Delaware Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEL -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEL)

CONN By 1-6 points

14.7%

CONN By 7-13 points

12.1%

DEL By 1-6 points

17.0%

DEL By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
42
UCONN
46
DELAWARE
Simulated Score
13
UCONN
38
DELAWARE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Delaware Win
31% Win Prob
D
Sim Delaware Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Delaware (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Delaware (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 88.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2025 CONN @ DEL 41 - 44
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +112.0% more
Delaware: 1.4 vs UConn: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +50.7% more
UConn: 192.8 vs Delaware: 95.0
Total Yards (L5) +30.6% more
UConn: 448.2 vs Delaware: 310.8
First Downs (L5) +21.1% more
UConn: 21.3 vs Delaware: 16.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CONN Score 42.0 41
DEL Score 46.0 44
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.8 / 21.3 29.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 95.0 / 192.8 247.0 / 175.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 310.8 / 448.2 512.0 / 521.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
9%MONEY91%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CONN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
DEL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CONN Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
DEL
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CONN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.5
DEL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEL
CONN
DEL
CONN
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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